By Ujjwal K Chowdhury
Ajit Jogi and Mayawati’s unexpected alliance in Chattisgarh has somewhat pulled the rug out from under both Congress and BJP. Even if BJP emerges as the single largest party, its inability to secure majority can leave the field wide open for Jogi to stake a claim to the post of CM
Now that the campaign and election dust has settled in Raipur and Bastar, it is time to look at the issues on hand this time round.
Abysmal growth in Human Development Index
Chattisgarh has been a state since the dawn of this century, from 2000, and of these 18 years, Dr Raman Singh-led BJP has been ruling for 15 years, and Dr Singh is seeking a fourth term this year.
Interestingly the 26th state of India, Chattisgarh, was formed on the ground that this most mineral rich part of India was not getting its development dues in the erstwhile united Madhya Pradesh. But 18 years into its existence as an Indian province, around 47.9% of people are below poverty line, down by a solitary percent from 2000, and the state is placed at the 23rd position in Human Development Index among all Indian states as per recent data from the Modi government. Per capita income is still below Rs 8,000 a month and 12.5% of the population is the official unemployment rate (some 26 lakh youths), double the national figures.
Rise of Naxalism
Alongside, and riding on this abysmal poverty, we see the rise of Naxalism from 8 districts in 2000 to 18 districts today (some carved out of earlier larger districts). The approach of the state to treat Naxalism as largely a law and order issue, coupled with police excesses in many tribal villages called out by the NHRC also, and also vested interests fishing in troubled waters to avail the central funds to fight Naxalism have all led to the current impasse.
All these years, in every Assembly or Lok Sabha polls, BJP has been winning with varying seats in a straight contest with Congress (with a minor 5% vote-share presence of BSP of Mayavati), but the vote percentage difference has always been below 2%, with that in the last Assembly polls coming down to as minimum as 0.77%. A minor shift of 1% votes may mark a major difference in the final tally of seats in a first past the post electoral system.
Congress bears the brunt of Jogi-Maya alliance
The failure of Congress to first quell a rebellion by its erstwhile leader and former CM, Ajit Jogi, and then its inability to strike an alliance with Mayawati’s BSP, has led to an unprecedented political situation in the state. Ajit Jogi, who has formed Janata Congress, has made an alliance with BSP and CPI, spearheading a spirited campaign trying to unite the scheduled tribes and castes of the state, who account for nearly 47% of the population together, and have deciding influence in 40 of the 90 MLA assemblies.
Traditionally, the SCs and STs have been voting for Congress. However, the ground reality has changed in the last 10 years. First, the Sangh Parivar through its Seva Bharati and Vanavasi Kalyan Ashram, has made deep inroads into the hinterland of Chattisgarh, and has indoctrinated the tribals with Hindutva ideology, so much so that there is a distinct difference in thinking and politics of Hindu Adivasis and Christian Adivasis today in the state. Further, with the departure of Ajit Jogi from Congress and steady rise of BSP in the state, the hold of the grand old party among scheduled castes has also weakened.
While Congress bears the brunt of Jogi-Maya combine, the BJP has also lost ground due to demonetization impact on farmers as the farm economy has always been cash-dependent. The farmers have been further incapacitated due to denial of Minimum Support Price at right rates and no crop bonus given for the last two years. Multi rate GST and its ever changing norms have also adversely affected the urban traders who have otherwise been always a BJP vote bank. Clearly, the PM, who had just two public meetings so far in the state, was silent on the merits/demerits of demonetization and GST and chose to speak on ‘urban Naxals’ which has hardly any local connect, and the principal opposition party, Congress has focused largely on these two.
Anti-incumbency an albatross around BJP neck
Anti-incumbency is another albatross around the neck of the ruling BJP, as it faces growing resentment against many ministers and MLAs, in spite of personal popularity of Dr Raman Singh, leading to cancellation of tickets to one-third of the sitting MLAs of BJP. If BJP is still in reckoning and most opinion polls predict a BJP win, it is due to the image the CM enjoys and due to some other major development initiatives like e-auction in mining, telecom revolution with 1000 towers in Naxal affected areas, 50 lakh smart-phones being given free, rice given at low cost to each family, public distribution system of ration being voted as the best in India, women as the head of the family in ration cards, and three smart cities in the state, Tata Cancer hospital in Rajnandgaon and 6000 crores worth new railway routes in the hinterland.
However, what is being missed out is the fact that there is a local consolidation of SC and ST voters this time as they see a viable alternative in Jogi-Maya combine, and even the Naxalite campaign against voting seems to be less critical of them. BSP, fighting in 35 seats, is very hopeful of at least 8 of them, especially those of Janjgir Lok Sabha constituency since its founder Kanshiram had fought elections here. CPI is strong in 2 to 3, and Ajit Jogi’s writ runs large in at least 10 seats with Satnami voters being in large numbers. If even half of these seats are won by the third front, both the national parties are in for a rude shock.
Jogi-Maya combine may end up with 20%+ votes and 15+ seats
Independent observers, including at least one opinion poll by C Voter, opine that Jogi-Maya combine may end up with 20%+ votes and 15+ seats, which may result in a Karnataka type situation with BJP being the single largest party, but none with 46 out of 90 seats to form a government. And, we may see the action replay of Bengaluru-model here too, with Rahul Gandhi offering Ajit Jogi the CM position and calling for a Congress-Third Front alliance, which is unprecedented in Chattisgarh context.
About the author: The author is currently the Dean of Media, Pearl Academy, Delhi & Mumbai, and former Dean of Symbiosis and Amity Universities. He is a regular commentator on current affairs.
3 BLURBS/ Content to be highlighted
18 years into its existence as an Indian province, around 47.9% of people are below poverty line, down by a solitary percent from 2000, and the state is placed at the 23rd position in Human Development Index among all Indian states as per recent data from the Modi government
Anti-incumbency is another albatross around the neck of the ruling BJP, as it faces growing resentment against many ministers and MLAs, in spite of personal popularity of Dr Raman Singh, leading to cancellation of tickets to one-third of the sitting MLAs of BJP. If BJP is still in reckoning and most opinion polls predict a BJP win, it is due to the image the CM enjoys and due to some other major development initiatives
Jogi-Maya combine may end up with 20%+ votes and 15+ seats, which may result in a Karnataka type situation with BJP being the single largest party, but none with 46 out of 90 seats to form a government. And, we may see the action replay of Bengaluru-model here too, with Rahul Gandhi offering Ajit Jogi the CM position and calling for a Congress-Third Front alliance, which is unprecedented in Chattisgarh context.
