Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury

The five state assembly results show decimation of BJP in all the five (except for good vote share in MP, and three being in the incumbent government), while the rise of Congress in three and decimation in two (one being in the incumbent government). So clearly bad news for BJP. How do we interpret this and what impact will it have on the General Elections of 2019?

First, mandate commands the parties to focus on People First.

BJP had tall state leaders and the tallest central leader. And it had the hard Hindutva mascot Adityanath criss-crossing poll-bound states. But it had a great retreat. The only reason can be that people were driven by personal miseries emanating from agrarian crisis, joblessness, price-rise, women’s insecurity et al on the one hand, and were not falling prey to rabid communal campaign on the other. Bread and butter mattered more than Ram and Rahim. In fact, rural distress has emerged to be the most important political narrative in recent months. There were cases of police firing on farmers’ agitation in MP and Rajasthan and deaths. The three Hindi heartland states: MP, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan are predominantly agrarian states with share of farm income to state GDP being higher than the national average. Repeated cases of atrocities on women, especially in MP, and widespread joblessness in all three states, apart from loss of farm and unorganized jobs due to demonetization, were the other aspects of loss of people focus.

Going ahead, quick action on agrarian front will be needed. The Centre is expected to give sops and loan waivers to farmers and pump in funds for self-employment and small businesses in the next 50 days, especially during the budget session, which is the last session of this Lok Sabha. The new governments of these states and those ruled by the Opposition shall also come out with sops in their state budgets too.

Second, the politics of alliances has also got a shot in the arm.

The Congress emboldened with the three states will need to cement the opposition Mahagatbandhan by consolidating the involvement of sulking opposition parties like Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party apart from the 21 parties which have met a day before the counting of votes. It needs to stem the efforts of KCR led TRS to form any non-Congress federal front, as given the nature of Indian politics, no opposition front can succeed without a strong core of a national party. BJP, on its side, needs to expand its alliance after losing 12 parties so far from NDA, the latest being Upendra Khushwaha’s RLSP (Rashtriya Lok Samata Party). It needs to add new NDA partners like TRS in Telengana, Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, ruling Mizo National Front of Mizoram, et al, and that shall be a daunting task indeed due to local compulsions of these parties. But no effective alliance on ground, no chance to cross 250 seats in Lok Sabha. And no Third Front can succeed where there is neither BJP nor Congress at the core.

Third, all tall faces were on the wane except for Telengana.

BJP in recent times has been attempting to presidentialize all elections in states, sometimes putting PM Modi in the forefront and this time the state CMs ahead where there is a strong face, while Congress in most places (except in Punjab) did not have a strong face anywhere portrayed as the CM in waiting for quite some time. That has not worked for BJP this time around. No Modi-magic was anywhere to be seen. What was seen was an unprecedented fall in the quality of political language with the PM himself addressing Sonia Gandhi as ‘Congress Ki Vidhwa’, meaning that the widow of Congress, who has eaten up all widow pension. Wherever Adityanath went to polarise the electorate, BJP has done badly. He spent the minimum time in MP, and BJP had the best results there. The Jan Ashirwad Yatra of MP CM Shivraj Chauhan was dropped mid-way due to absence of any popular support. From Vyapam to local level corruption, Chauhan’s image had already taken a big hit. Even the Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia’s electoral yatra was stopped mid-path facing slogans like ‘Modi sey bair nahi, Rani teri khair nahi’ (No enmity with Modi, no love lost for Rani). Dr Raman Singh has a larger than life image in Chattisgarh but that did not help him save the day facing anti-incumbency against his ministers and MLAs.

Hence, message for 2019: rebrand the image of Modi focussing on governance and his stature and not communal or hate speeches. Also, rebrand the image of Rahul Gandhi as a matured and caring leader, the process of which has started. Rahul Gandhi’s presser immediately after victory in three states bears testimony to it. Also, the opposition may need to rebrand the images of Mamata Banerjee, N Chandrababu Naidu and Mayawati to make them evolve as leaders with national perspective and accessible. But all image-building must be subservient to People Focus and Alliance-making, and that is a message for BJP more than others.

Fourth, double anti incumbency spelt the doom for BJP.

The anti incumbency against CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia has been tidal. Whether about her legendary arrogance even with her own ministers and MLAs, her inaccessibility, her policy paralysis on major issues of public life, her focus only on the urban educated elite given her royal background, etc, the media and public opinion was extremely critical for the last two years. Further, the crafts, stones, agri-products and other small businesses were affected adversely with demonetization as they have been dependent on a cash driven economy, and also by GST with multi layers. Joblessness for educated youths, no MSP for the farming community, fuel price rise affecting famers and urban middle class alike et al emanating from Central government policies also contributed to the debacle.

The anti incumbency in MP has been a double volume one too. While the people resented Vyapam, corruption and nepotism at the level of the BJP MLAs and some ministers, they were agitated against agrarian crisis (specially Mandsaur firing on farmers), joblessness and failure on the law and order front. Over and above this, the demonetization harmed the cash-dependent rural economy while the digital infrastructure is abysmal in the hinterland. The GST with five layers put small traders and SME sector in a situation of high stress as well. And, furthermore, fuel price rise in the months ahead of the polls had led to high price-rise of commodities as well.

Extreme anti-incumbency is writ large on the results in Chattisgarh too. In fact, double anti incumbency. While voters may not have been totally disenchanted with the Chaul Baba, as CM Dr Raman Singh is often called for his cheap rice and good PDS system, they were surely disenchanted with many elected MLAs of BJP and nepotism at lower levels. Further, the central policies of demonetization ruining cash-driven rural and tribal economy, and five-layered GST troubling small and medium enterprises, apart from rise of fuel prices making living expensive and retail sales down, led to the a double anti-incumbency.

BJP has to deal with this as 2019 polls come up, and the answer to this in their thinking seems to be in two directions now: first, bring in an abundance of sops through a populist budget ahead, taking money from the RBI reserves for which a pliant RBI Governor and an ardent supporter of the failed policy of demonetization, Shaktikant Das, has been brought in. Second, the ruling party through the Sangh parivan affiliates like Vishwa Hindu Parishad, Bajrang Dal and Durga Vahini, and numerous Go-raksha (cow vigilante) groups, would attempt a rabid polarization on the basis of hardcore Hindutva, Ramjanmabhoomi, go-raksha, love jehad, security in Kashmir, apart from demonizing the Indian Muslim and Pakistan and equating them both. Whether this works or not time will tell. It has not worked that much in these three Hindi heartland states. But old habits die hard.

Fifth, this time an unusually united Congress faced a unusually disunited BJP.

From Chattisgarh where Congress is divided between leader of opposition TS Singh Deo, state president Bhupesh Baghel and Tamradhwaj Sahu, to MP where the local Congress bosses are Kamalnath, Jyotiraditya Scindia and former CM Digvijay Singh, to Rajasthan where the rivalry has been between former CM Ashok Gehlot and state Congress president Sachin Pilot: the grand old party presented a picture of bonhomie within. Irrespective of whatever happens ahead when in power, the campaign was fought with low resources but high brotherhood by Congress. Whereas BJP, especially in Rajasthan, was bitterly divided inside. Suicidal for them has been the conflict that CM Vasundhara Raje and her coterie has been having with Modi-Shah leadership of BJP to the extent that she did not allow Shah man Gajendra Singh Sekhawat to take over as BJP state president.

Battle of 2019 will need Congress to exhibit this unusual internal bonhomie and even with the alliance partners and come to early conclusions on who fights the polls from where and then to focus only on taking the Common Minimum Program or Alliance Manifesto to the people through all possible means. But then, there are too many ifs and buts on the way.

Sixth, surely it is a shot in the arm of Congress and Rahul Gandhi.

Interestingly, December 11 last year was the day when Rahul Gandhi was formally elected as the Congress President, and exactly one year later, three Hindi heartland states register Congress win under his leadership. His claim to the leadership of the united opposition has just got a fillip. However, he would need to be cautious in first selection of his CMs in the three winning states as there are several claimants and this can be tricky, and then make the local party units totally back the new CMs. And second, he needs to cautiously avoid the arrogance that may creep into the party and take an accommodative stance with allies and even seek new allies. A case in point here is Ajit Jogi who now wants to return to Congress, and another in point is Mayawati’s BSP which has not made a major mark but is getting some 10 seats across the three states of Hindi heartland this time. Congress needs to do business with both of them, and many more like them, with dignity and space for them.

Seventh, we may see some drastic measures in the politics of BJP ahead.

The budget ahead of the Centre can be highly populist full of sops, as noted. Alongside, there will further polarization as well. The government can push the Triple Talaq Bill and bring in the legislative passage of Ramjanmabhoomi Mandir, even if it faces a defeat in the Rajya Sabha where it is a minority forcing Congress to take a stand in the Parliament. Rebuilding Modi image, a drastic measure like surgical strike or bringing in Mallya, Lalit Modi and Nirav Modi, and attempts to delink the state polls with the central one six months down the line will be the other possible steps by BJP ahead.

The whole is larger than the parts. When parts start rebelling, it catches up with the whole faster than presumed. That happened when Indira govt fell, or Vajpayee or Manmohan govts lost. That can happen here too. But the last word is not yet spoken as Modi-Shah leadership cannot brook any defeat and may resort to drastic measures ahead from Kashmir (surgical strikes, abolition of Art 30A, breakup of J&K into Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh) to Lucknow (Triple Talaq bill, Ramjanmabhoomi bill and harsh polarization on ground).

The author is a noted media academic and commentator, and is currently the Dean of Pearl Academy, and former Media Dean of Symbiosis and Amity Universities.

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