Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury
First phase of the general elections in India is over on April 11, and the next one is a week later. From a low of 53% in Bihar to a high of 81% in Bengal and Tripura, the nation has seen varying degrees of electorate enthusiasm.
And, the question that has emerged once again is can the Opposition unseat BJP and in particular Modi-Shah regime. This has become a bigger talking point in the light of some quick developments in last five days: Modi biopic and political content of NaMo TV banned by the Election Commission till elections, UP CM Adityanath censored for Ali-Bajrangbali comment, Western UP seems to be voting for the Mahagatbandhan based on caste-communal composition there, widespread EVM malfunctioning specially in Andhra, Supreme Court asking for details of electoral bonds funding to parties and allowing ‘classified Rafael documents’ to be accepted for judicial scrutiny, Pakistan PM tweeting to favour return of BJP to power, the BJP manifesto falling short on public aspirations, etc.
The biggest weakness of the Opposition in India is its relative slow pace in turning around to respond to the changing dynamics in these volatile electoral times. Considering that some of the key opposition parties are able to be agile and nimble, here are ten steps that need to be done to ensure it is a different composition of the government ahead.
First, take NYAY to the masses in rural hinterland and the urban poor. NYAY or Basic Minimum Income assurance to the poorest 20% of the people may not attract the urban educated aspirant middle class or the richer folks, but this social security measure, the centre-piece of Congress manifesto, rings a musical bell in the minds of the urban and the rural poor. Also, some details on how to raise the additional Rs.3.6 lacs crores expense due to NYAY need to be told. This must be taken to every single home for which it matters. But Congress is not known to sweat it out in the heat of the summer on the streets, fields and jungles.
Second, position 100 lacs crores infra-structure and 25 lacs crores farm investment promises, the centre-piece of BJP manifesto, another season of impossible promises (and hence ‘joomlas’) just like the 15 lacs in account or 2 crores of new jobs a year told by BJP in 2014 campaign. This needs a bit of research to tell that BJP is promising figures impossible in the given context of Indian GDP, how such figures will need a decade of continuous double digit growth to be achieved.
Third, the opposition’s answer to job-crisis and the NDA’s all-out failure in this needs to be info-graphically demonstrated and grilled into the election campaign narrative. While BJP will increasingly get down to Pakistan-Muslim-Terrorism focused narrative, the opposition narrative must not move from joblessness and thereafter the widespread farm-crisis.
Fourth, in continuation of the above, the same needs to be done with regards to farm crisis. Images of farm discontent, police firing and protests are enough and more in social media, which are facts and not whatsapp fiction, and which the opposition needs to remind the electorate. Alongside, what does the opposition have to tell, what have opposition rules states doing in this issue, etc. Mere promises will not cut ice, unless talks about loan waivers in Congress states, Sabuj-Sathi and Krishi-Mitra schemes of Mamata, Rs.50k per hectare support for damaged crops in rural Delhi, raitu-bandhu scheme of TRS (marketed strongly) are reminded.
Fifth, some radical thinking in health sector needs to be brought on the table by the opposition: promise of right to health by Congress, Sastho-mitra scheme of TMC, mohalla clinics infra of Delhi government: all these against merely insurance driven Ayushman bhava policy of NDA. The fundamental difference between these two approaches needs to be amplified: a technocrat one of NDA giving higher income to insurance companies versus a humanist one of others calling for actual infra-structure, free medi-care and medicines to those who need these direly.
Sixth, nothing like political realignment. Though late, Congress must finalize alliance with AAP in Delhi-Haryana-Punjab, at least the first two, even now. And have tactical understanding with the Left in Bengal and with Mahagatbandhan in UP. Rather that wasting two fine resources like Priyanka Gandhi and Jyotiraditya Scindia in the politically barren land of UP for Congress, except some 5-6 seats, the entire focus should be on making hay in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan which has Congress governments now, and to an extent in Bihar and Maharashtra where it has strong regional partners. Losing out with the Dalit forces, especially of Prakash Ambedkar, is another weak point in its Maharashtra campaign. The UP organization can wait for another day. Tactically helping the SP-BSP-RLD Mahagatbandhan which has started on a strong wicket in Western UP is far more important than proving a higher vote share with no more seats in UP for Congress. Tactically supporting Kanhaiya Kumar to win in Bihar and Prakash Ambedkar in Maharashtra will send the right message to a section of educated left-leaning electorate whose influence on public opinion is often disproportionate to their numbers in the population.
Seventh, BJP’s 2019 journey is hinging heavily on Bengal and Odisha, and Congress needs to lie completely low here except 3 seats in Bengal and some 2 seats in Odisha, which are its best bets, and rather tactically allow TMC and BJD to do the talking with Modi-Shah juggernaut. Wasting resources and key leaders’ time in these states is actually of no value to the Congress.
Eighth, opposition can have unexpected gains in Karnataka (if Congress-JDS manage Mandya and Mysore seats better), in Tamil Nadu (if the alliance with DMK and MDMK hits the roads in full fervour, with AIADMK having no story to tell apart from its abject dependency on BJP for its lease of life), and in Gujarat (where there are strong grievances among the tribals, the Muslims and the Patels, all of which have not been effectively made use of by the Congress so far). Tactical or direct support to Prakash Raj in Bengaluru will be a good idea for Congress to win a section of the educated electorate of the city.
Ninth, it is important to effectively put the Opposition stand on national security: with the government on strong measures against terrorism, but against alienating the civilian population especially in Kashmir. Noting that Gandhi family lost two PMs to terrorism and Congress government helped balkanize Pakistan with the birth of Bangladesh, entire opposition should salute the armed forces and strongly oppose the use of army sacrifices for BJP’s electoral gains. Pressures on the Election Commission on these have given results, but need to be upped even further. And talking less on Rafael deal is a better tactic in the next 40 days.
Finally, election is won through perception and booth management on the final day. The social media campaign and managing the already biased mainstream media effectively by the opposition parties, specially the Congress, leave a large room for improvement. And, so is the case of booth management where many opposition parties do not seem to have yet a concerted attempt among themselves to ensure free and fair poll and avoid EVM misuse or mal-functioning. They lack the zeal and micro management for which Amit Shah’s enormous booth management army is well known for. The non-Congress opposition should surreptitiously keep the option of a non-Modi NDA government also alive, should the situation demand after May 23.
India needs a more caring, non communal, bottoms-up development approach going ahead, with decisions taken more through consensus of many rather than fancies of any. And the opposition has a major role. It knows it, but is not seen to act on it the full hog.
The author is a media academic and columnist.
(The views and opinions expressed in this article are of the author and thus do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy or position of OdishaLIVE.)
