Bengal Polls: Advantage BJP, But Much Hyped

Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury

BJP’s politics of shelter and money to disgruntled Left & Congress cadre and scam-tainted Trinamool politicians, apart from its communal polarization in the border districts of Bengal, coupled with Trinamool’s politics of violence in spite of development work, and failure of Left and Congress to come together: have all led to the rise of the BJP today and is expected to be the second force after TMC in Bengal.

Bengal today is at a historic juncture. While PM Modi in the latest election campaign meet there has called Mamata as the development ‘speed-breaker’, Mamata has called him ‘expiry date PM’ and challenged him saying “touch me if you can”.

Some eight years ago there was a political earthquake of sorts and the three decades old Left Front government was voted out by a maverick face of the politics of protest, Mamata Banerjee, and her Trinamool Congress (TMC) which was an offshoot of Congress that she left with her coterie alleging that Congress in Bengal was the B-team of CPI(M) of the Left Front.

Since then, TMC has been winning every single election in the state: Assembly twice, Lok Sabha once, panchayat and municipalities twice, and many by-elections.

It is only since the last Panchayat polls in Bengal that the scenario seems to be changing, and as Bengal goes for a protracted 7-phase election ahead, it is Advantage BJP, though the extent of its expected success (“We will win 22 of the 42 seats in Bengal,” Amit Shah) is far-fetched and much hyped.

And the responsibility of this emerging scenario is primarily of the ruling TMC, followed by Congress, the Left, and credit of BJP is actually the least.

‘Murder of Democracy’

Mamata and her party from the moment of coming to power systematically weakened the structures of the-then opposition (defeated Left and then the Congress), killed many of their foot soldiers, arrested more, and it went to the extent of burning a CPM supporting couple alive in their house. The model of capture and control by the ruling party TMC in Bengal to decimate the CPI(M), by burning its party offices in remote rural areas, vandalising the homes of its supporters, turning voters into political refugees fleeing a vengeful victor have all led to the opposition space wide open for the BJP to enter with its Hindutva, cash, and promise of political protection and patronage.

Panchayat elections in Bengal have regularly witnessed violence since the 1980s. However, the scale of the violence has significantly increased this time. A reflection of this trend can be seen in the data given by the state election commission regarding the number of unopposed winners. While in 2003, 2008 and 2013, the winners who did not have to face any contest were 11%, 5.57% and 10.66% respectively, the figure has drastically increased to around 34%, which amounts to over 19000 seats, in 2018.

According to an appeal of lawyer Pradeep Chakraborty to the Kolkata High Court, pleading for rejection of the Panchayat elections in 2018, a total of 24 deaths in violence are reported, apart from around 150 injured, of which 60 are in serious conditions. The presence of gangs of Trinamool Congress operatives manning the gates of government offices, assaults on the media including wrongful detention of journalists, both men and women, indicates the degree to which the election process was compromised. It is also true that in some places the opposition, particularly BJP, used similar intimidation tactics to prevent rivals from participating in the democratic process. TMC insisted that mercenaries are imported from neighbouring states (read, Jharkhand) by BJP and the opposition insisted that hired goons are deployed by the ruling party. State BJP president Dilip Ghosh alleged that due to the “unprecedented reign of terror” unleashed by the TMC, the opposition candidates could “neither file nominations nor were they allowed to contest”. Senior CPI(M) leader Sujan Chakraborty alleged that the TMC had turned the polls into a “farce”.

According to State Election Commission sources, 16,814 gram panchayat seats, 3059 panchayat samity seats and 203 zilla parishad seats were uncontested. The leadership of Mamata Banerjee’s TMC termed the victory in the uncontested seats a victory of the masses.

It is clear today that the TMC had used violence over the eight years to scare away the CPI(M) and unknowingly or otherwise, has made room for the BJP to make a more forcible entry in Bengal hinterland. Ironically, the BJP is perceived by some of the CPI(M)’s managers as a powerful party with whom a tacit understanding will serve to protect candidates and supporters from the violence of the ruling TMC. Large part of the disillusioned Left cadre has actually abandoned the Left for BJP, and Congress cadre except in North Bengal has also started trickling into the saffron camp.

This experience of 2018 has given the ground for the Election Commission this time to call for 7-phase Lok Sabha election, decidedly manned largely by the central forces.

Facts of BJP ‘Entry in Rural Bengal’

The above chart shows that even before the panchayat polls, BJP was already on the rise in vote-share in Bengal and at the cost of CPM and Congress, while TMC has been increasing its vote-share and maintaining the lead all throughout. BJP has increased its vote-share in the panchayat polls to a whopping 26% being second only to TMC.

According to a senior state BJP leader, it was the first time that the party had been elected to the gram panchayat level in every district of the state. Clearly these polls were a litmus test for the BJP ahead of the  Lok Sabha polls.

Break-down of the Left-Congress Alliance

After the Bengal panchayat polls, the state is looking at a new political landscape in which a pulverized Left has been replaced by the BJP. The situation was that without an official pre-poll alliance between the Left and Congress, both will be simply washed out in any future elections in Bengal. So, once dead enemies, Left and the Congress were expected to see the Yechurian Principle of bonhomie between them to grow in flesh and blood ahead. But it did not happen and we are told that failure of the Congress to reserve Raiganj and Murshidabad for CPM where it has its sitting MPs was the key reason. Their combined vote-share of some 33% during the Panchayat polls now lies shattered and en masse shift of electorate loyalty is expected in the four-cornered contest of this time.

While Congress is expected to win in Malda South and Behrampur, and may do well in Murshidabad, the Left is not expected to win a single seat in Bengal as things stand today. A united Congress-Left would have surely sealed these three, Raiganj, and perhaps one or two more, with CPM (Left) representation assured.

BJP’s Inroads:

The BJP first exploited the perceived Muslim appeasement of Mamata government to attempt a Hindu consolidation (though Mamata tried to balance her earlier Imam Pension with later money being doled out to the Durga Puja clubs, etc). Next, they carried out some controversial Ramnavami rallies with swords, maces and mythological faces et al to create ‘a rise of Hindu consciousness’. And then they started poaching the corrupt and disgruntled elements of TMC, starting with Sarada scam tainted Mukul Roy (once Mamata Banerjee’s deputy), moving on to the controversial former police officer Bharati Ghosh, till most recently TMC’s the strong-armed don politician and MLA Arjun Singh who is today expected to win in Barrackpore.

The BJP has also made unexpected and significant gains in tribal-dominated areas of three districts like Bankura, Jhargram and Purulia in the last Panchayat polls. It has almost matched the Trinamool in Purulia in last Panchayat polls. It has communalized its campaign in the border districts of Bengal where the Bangladeshi migrant Hindus anyway abhor Muslims and today make for the mainstay of BJP’s support-base. Bimal Gurung-GNLF combine tacitly supporting BJP and coal belt cash-driven politics comforting BJP ensures two more seats for BJP, the existing Asansol and Darjeeling. So it sits pretty strong to win in 6 constituencies at the least, if not one or two more.

The TMC ‘Development Impact’

However, without condoning wanton violence by TMC in the last Panchayat polls, it must be accepted that a good part of the rural electorate in Bengal does admire Mamata’s policies like Kanyashree (cycles and education to the girl-child), Sastho-bandhu (healthcare for the poor), and making of rural roads and schools. Add to these, TMC government patronage to local clubs, madrasahs, imams, and now pujaris also added, et al, which have all paid it rich electoral dividends. The State GDP has been one of the highest among Indian states and investments including Human Development indices have all been impressive. But these may not be enough to win all the Bengal MP seats as the Chief Minister would love to.

The writer is the Dean, School of Media, Pearl Academy, Delhi & Mumbai. He has been the former Dean of Symbiosis and Amity Universities. Opinions expressed here are strictly his personal.