By Ujjwal K Chowdhury
Lack of jobs and insignificant industrial output in Madhya Pradesh may be a cause of concern for the BJP, but lack of opposition unity can tilt the scale in its favour
According to The ABP-CVoter survey, Congress is poised to scrape through in Madhya Pradesh assembly polls with 119 out of 230 seats, while BJP is expected to manage only 105, and 6 going to others, mainly BSP. A drastically different picture was presented by Times Now nearly two weeks earlier, giving BJP 142 and Congress 77, and others 11. Contrast these figures with the status today in the MP Assembly: BJP 165, Congress 58, BSP 4, Independents three. BJP has called the shots in the state’s polity over the past 15 years. This dominance was on display in the last MP elections as well in 2013 when it secured 45% of all votes—the highest in the state for nearly 30 years—and 72% of seats in the state. BJP’s vote share was 9 percent points higher than Congress’s (36%) but it was far more successful in converting votes into seats.
But MP polls perhaps are the most closely watched now with Rajasthan favouring the Congress with a huge anti-incumbency factor against the sitting BJP CM, and things looking brighter for BJP in Chattisgarh again with three-cornered fight ruining chances of Congress. Also, MP has 29 Lok Sabha seats and among all states going to polls now, contributes the most to the LS. The state at the heart of India is at the heart of the ensuing round of Assembly polls today.
Economic Factors at play in MP:
Let’s talk business before politics for a change. Madhya Pradesh’s economy still depends significantly on agriculture. The last census showed agriculture employs nearly 70% of the workforce against 55% at the national level. In 2015, government data shows more than 10 million farms across the state. In 2003, MP accounted for around 5% of total national agricultural output; by 2014, this share had increased to 8%.
An early era Minimum Support Price, incentives to wheat and pulses production and increased state procurement led to rise in farm produce and agricultural income over last 15 years. But the disparity within the agricultural economy has kept the per capita farming family income lower than the national average in a state where 76% of the farmers are small, largely landless, farmers relying on rural wages. The farming community is not happy with the new MSP rates of the Centre, which have not yet been implemented yet. Today, farmers’ anger is a major issue giving BJP sleepless nights, more so after the infamous Mandsaur firing which killed several protesting farmers.
Fall in industrial output:
Further compounding the situation, the state’s share in the country’s industrial output fell from 3.6% in 2003 to 3.2% in 2014. Not surprisingly, factory jobs are few and far between. Despite accounting for 6% of India’s population, as of 2015-16, Madhya Pradesh only employed 2.5% of India’s industrial workers.
Actually, the rural unrest we see now is as much due to the lack of growth in farm incomes as due to the lack of alternative job opportunities for most of the state’s populace.
Abysmal education standards
Further, the state shows low figures in education and health. MP fares worse than the Indian average. For instance, infant mortality at 47 deaths per 1,000 birth is significantly higher than the India figure (34). According to the ASER survey, in Madhya Pradesh nearly 17% of children in rural government schools could not recognize basic letters while 14% could not do basic arithmetic, higher than the corresponding Indian figures (15% for reading and 12% for arithmetic).
Hindutva Card & SC-ST Uncertainty:
As is well known, caste and religion have played a key role in past MP elections. No wonder then, that both the BJP and the Congress have publicly tom-tommed their Hindu credentials in the run-up to the polls. BJP has been known to be a hard Hindutva votary, but the fact that its state leaders are pouring scorn and vitriol on Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s new-found enthusiasm for Hindu religion, janeudhaari and Shiv Bhakt claims, shows that it is hurting the original Hindu brigade on ground. The growth of Hindu identity in a predominantly Hindu state (91% of the state’s population) explains why both the BJP and Congress have decided to wear the Hindu card on their sleeves.
BJP also had higher victory margins on average. Of the 165 constituencies it won in the 230-member assembly, the BJP had a victory margin greater than 10% in 92 constituencies. In contrast, the Congress won only 17 of the 58 constituencies with a victory margin greater than 10%. BJP’s victories were equally decisive in reserved and unreserved constituencies.
BJP in 2013 had won 28 out of 35 SC reserved seats, and 31 out of 47 ST reserved seats, totalling a huge 59 out of 82 reserved seats. Compared to 9% tribal population in India, tribals are 21% of MP population. One reason for this BJP success could be attributed to proactive grassroot work in tribal areas by socio-religious affiliates of the Sangh Parivar, specially its efforts in providing critical social services in tribal pockets. These activities have not just increased BJP’s popularity but also promoted Hindu identity in these areas among a largely animist tribal population.
However, the controversy over the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (Prevention of Atrocities Act) and the differing stances of BJP leaders of the Centre and the state on the issue have opened a gaping chasm between tribal voters and upper caste voters. While tribal voters seem to be dissatisfied with the government handling of atrocities against the marginalized communities, the BJP’s core upper caste vote bank seems to feel that the government is pandering to tribal and Dalit interest by refusing to dilute the Atrocities Act. The ruling party is on the back-foot amidst both support groups today.
A whiff of relief for BJP has been the failure of Congress to strike an alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party, which has an assured 6-7% vote-share in the state. A Congress-BSP alliance would have sealed the fate of BJP in these 82 reserved seats to a large extent. The loss among SCs hence is being tried by Congress through an alliance with the tribal party, Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti (JAYS), which is yet to be on firm ground.
Factionalism in both parties:
The combination of farmer protests, SC/ST tensions, and general anti-incumbency sentiment towards a party that has been in power for the past 15 years, in theory, offers a ray of hope to the Congress. However, the Congress prospects in Madhya Pradesh have been historically marred by rampant factionalism. A united front with a focus on improving their poor votes-to-seat ratio could revive Congress fortunes. The Congress High Command meanwhile has taken a tactical decision not to name the chief minister candidate, has given state leadership to Kamal Nath and campaign leadership to Jyotiraditya Scindia, while Digvijay Singh has been asked to lie low. So far, they are going by the book, and Congress intends to change some of their sitting MLAs. But the fact that the candidates have not yet been announced by Congress shows that not all is hunky dory on their front.
The factionalism within BJP is also for all to see with Indore legislator and a central general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya and the Bhopal Mayor Alok Sharma flexing their muscles, Kailash and Sumitra Mahajan nurturing their CM aspirations, and CM Shivraj Chauhan facing pressures from the RSS to drop 78 sitting MLAs and 12 sitting ministers, which are now reflected in the first lists of candidates being announced by BJP. What impact the disgruntled elements of BJP will have on electioneering in the seats where the winning margins are low, needs to be seen.
Jan Ashirwad Yatra a damp squib?
There is another challenge for BJP which is bad optics. The party in Madhya Pradesh is constantly struggling not only to gather crowd for its rallies in the state but also for the Jan Ashirvad Yatra of Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. The much publicized Yatra ended at Jabalpur recently without completing its target of covering all the 230 Assembly constituencies (covered 187, and many peripherally). BJP said that it had to cut short the Yatra because two weeks are left for November 28 polls and the chief minister was finding it difficult to find time for many other important electoral exercises like deciding candidates, manifesto and other strategies. But intelligence reports about shoes being hurled and cavalcade being attacked have also been the reason for this decision to be reached at as the CM does not want any ugly seen before elections due to the anti-incumbency factory. However, the Congress insists that that the Yatra was terminated because of lackadaisical response. The government officials, school children and beneficiaries of schemes stopped attending the Yatra after the model code of conduct came in place. Hardik Patel’s spirited anti-BJP campaign in the Malwa region is also causing concerns for the CM.
Can the opposition alliance tilt the scales in their favour?
As on today, both sides are on an even keel. If Congress wins, as says ABP News, it is due to heavy anti-incumbency and farm distress. If BJP wins, it is due to the failure of Opposition parties to push their political agenda forward. The original discussion of Mahagatbandhan of Congress, BSP, Samajwadi Party and JAYS would have sealed the results this time, but that did not happen, and hence it is a battle royale now, open on either side. And, interestingly, BSP-JAYS among SCs/STs may turn to be the king-maker in MP.
About the author: The author is currently the Dean of Media, Pearl Academy, Delhi & Mumbai, and former Dean of Symbiosis and Amity Universities. He is a regular commentator on current affairs.
Blurbs or content to be highlighted
The disparity within the agricultural economy has kept the per capita farming family income lower than the national average in a state where 76% of the farmers are small, largely landless, farmers relying on rural wages. The farming community is not happy with the new MSP rates of the Centre, which have not yet been implemented yet.
The factionalism within BJP is also for all to see with Indore legislator and a central general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya and the Bhopal Mayor Alok Sharma flexing their muscles, Kailash and Sumitra Mahajan nurturing their CM aspirations, and CM Shivraj Chauhan facing pressures from the RSS to drop 78 sitting MLAs and 12 sitting ministers, which are now reflected in the first lists of candidates being announced by BJP
The much publicized Yatra ended at Jabalpur recently without completing its target of covering all the 230 Assembly constituencies (covered 187, and many peripherally). BJP said that it had to cut short the Yatra because two weeks are left for November 28 polls and the chief minister was finding it difficult to find time for many other important electoral exercises like deciding candidates, manifesto and other strategies.
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